I see a lot of reasonable speculation about what it is that drew people to desire the Silmarils, even when it might seem unwise.
Now there are situations where people genuinely seem to want a Silmaril: mostly, Feanor, whose Oath is all about Silmarils of course (rather oddly, since we are told he valued his father more highly than them). I don’t count Thingol: I don’t think Thingol wanted a Silmaril originally, I think he wanted Beren to disappear.
But consider that the Silmaril of Doriath was set into the Nauglamir. The Nauglamir, whose owner had been slain while Sauron’s prisoner. Which was part of a dragon-hoard, owned by Glaurung. The Nauglamir which was cursed with a dying curse by Mîm, and delivered to Doriath by Hurin, who had been personally cursed by Morgoth himself.
It might not be the Silmaril alone that brought doom on Doriath and the Havens.
If the Nauglamir had never come to Doriath, Thingol probably would not have died: the dwarves of Nogrod might not have been there, and if they had, they would not have killed him. The Girdle would not have fallen. The House of Feanor would not be able to attack Doriath (they were able to attack because the Girdle was gone), and so would never have attacked the Havens of Sirion.
I think the Nauglamir is an important part of the ‘why not give the Silmaril to the Sons of Feanor’ discussion too: it’s not easy to give away gold under the dragon-spell…
If the Nauglamir had never come to Doriath, then I think Doriath with its Silmaril and Maia queen would have been the last elf-kingdom standing: the Feanorian remnant would presumably have been wiped out, along eventually with the remains of the Edain, and Gondolin.
I suppose the question then is whether the Valar would ever have come to the aid of Middle-earth.